Arsenal have been given a 90.5% probability of winning the 2025-26 Premier League title by the Opta Supercomputer, as Mikel Arteta’s side continue to set the pace at the top of English football.

The Gunners sit on 57 points from 26 matches — four clear of Manchester City in second — and have lost just twice all season. Their defensive record of 14 goals conceded is comfortably the best in the division, while the 52 goals scored represents the third-highest tally behind City (56) and Newcastle (48).

The Key to Arsenal’s Success

Arteta’s side have evolved from the nearly men of 2023-24 and 2024-25 into genuine serial contenders. The summer additions of a commanding midfielder and a clinical striker have addressed the weaknesses that cost them in previous campaigns. The spine of the team — David Raya in goal, William Saliba and Gabriel at centre-back, Martin Odegaard in midfield — is as strong as any in Europe.

What sets this Arsenal apart from their predecessors is their mentality in tight games. They have won seven matches by a single goal this season and have recovered from losing positions on four occasions. This is a squad that knows how to win ugly — a quality conspicuously absent from their previous title challenges.

Can City Close the Gap?

Manchester City, on 53 points, remain Arsenal’s most credible challengers. Their 3-0 victory over Fulham showed signs that Guardiola’s rebuilt squad — featuring January signing Antoine Semenyo — is beginning to gel. However, City’s defensive fragility this season has been their undoing, conceding 28 goals compared to Arsenal’s 14.

The two sides meet at the Emirates in April in what could be a title decider. If Arsenal maintain their current form, they may have the championship wrapped up before that fixture even arrives.

Liverpool’s Fall from Grace

Perhaps the most remarkable subplot of this season has been the collapse of defending champions Liverpool. Arne Slot’s side sit 5th on just 42 points — 15 behind Arsenal — and are 250/1 to retain their crown. From champions to mid-table in the space of nine months, it is a cautionary tale of how quickly fortunes can change in the Premier League.

With 12 games remaining, Arsenal fans are beginning to dream of a first league title since the Invincibles of 2003-04. If the Opta model is right, this could finally be their year.