The Premier League top-four race is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in years. With the season past the halfway mark, we analyse the current outright odds from leading bookmakers and assess each contender’s chances of securing Champions League football for 2026/27.

Current Top 4 Finish Odds — Comparison

Below are the latest odds for a top-four finish from four major UK bookmakers, correct as of 7th February 2026.

Team	bet365	William Hill	Paddy Power	Betfair
Liverpool	1/50	1/33	1/50	1/40
Arsenal	1/12	1/10	1/12	1/10
Manchester City	1/5	2/9	1/5	2/9
Chelsea	1/3	4/11	2/7	1/3
Newcastle	4/5	5/6	4/5	Evens
Aston Villa	5/2	11/4	5/2	3/1
Nottm Forest	4/1	9/2	4/1	4/1
Bournemouth	8/1	10/1	8/1	9/1
Brighton	14/1	16/1	14/1	14/1
Tottenham	14/1	12/1	16/1	14/1

The Certainties

Liverpool — 1/50 (bet365)

Barring a catastrophic collapse of historic proportions, Liverpool’s top-four place is sealed. Arne Slot’s side sit 8 points clear at the summit and have the best goal difference in the division by a considerable margin. With Salah, Van Dijk, and an incredibly deep squad, Liverpool are not just finishing in the top four — they’re winning the league. No betting value here whatsoever.

Arsenal — 1/12 (bet365)

Arsenal look extremely likely to secure a top-four spot for the fourth consecutive season under Mikel Arteta. Currently second, 8 points behind Liverpool but 6 clear of fifth, the Gunners have the squad depth and defensive solidity to maintain their position. Saka, Havertz, and Rice continue to drive them forward. Another with very little value in the outright market, but a virtual certainty for the top four.

The Strong Contenders

Manchester City — 1/5 (bet365)

City’s season has been uncharacteristically inconsistent by their own stratospheric standards. A sluggish start — by Guardiola’s benchmarks — saw them slip to fifth in November, but a run of 10 wins in 12 matches has hauled them back into third. With Haaland, De Bruyne, and the deepest squad in the league, City have more than enough quality to hold onto a top-four place.

The 1/5 odds reflect the near-certainty of City finishing in the top four, and rightly so. While there’s no value in backing them outright, we’d be stunned if they slipped out of the Champions League places.

Chelsea — 1/3 (bet365)

The surprise package of the season. Under Enzo Maresca, Chelsea have been transformed from a bloated, directionless squad into genuine contenders. Cole Palmer has been the standout, but the contributions of Moises Caicedo, Nicolas Jackson, and the emerging Levi Colwill have been equally vital.

Currently fourth, 2 points above Newcastle, Chelsea’s fixture run-in is favourable — just three of their remaining 14 matches are against current top-eight sides. At 1/3, the value has largely gone, but Chelsea look well-placed to hold on.

The Challengers — Where the Value Lies

Newcastle — 4/5 (bet365) ★ Best Bet

Here’s where it gets interesting. Newcastle sit fifth, just 2 points behind Chelsea with a game in hand. Eddie Howe’s side have been magnificent since Christmas — winning 7 of their last 9 — and possess one of the best attacks in the division, led by the outstanding Isak.

We think 4/5 represents solid value. Newcastle’s remaining fixtures are manageable (only two matches against current top-four sides), and their form trajectory is upward. The Magpies have the quality, depth, and momentum to gatecrash the top four, potentially at Chelsea’s expense. This is our best bet in the outright top-four market.

Aston Villa — 5/2 (bet365)

Villa are 5 points off fourth and remain in the hunt, but their Champions League commitments have taken a toll on squad depth. Emery’s side have the quality — Watkins, Rogers, Tielemans — but their away form has been inconsistent, and the fixture congestion of February and March could be decisive.

At 5/2, Villa offer reasonable each-way value. They’re not our primary pick, but we wouldn’t dismiss them either. Much depends on how they navigate a brutal February schedule that includes trips to Tottenham, Arsenal, and Newcastle.

Nottingham Forest — 4/1 (bet365)

The fairy tale that keeps on giving. Forest’s remarkable season under Nuno Espirito Santo has defied all pre-season predictions, and they sit seventh — just 7 points off fourth. Chris Wood’s 15 goals have been crucial, and the defensive organisation that was Forest’s hallmark last season has been complemented by a more adventurous attacking approach.

At 4/1, Forest are an intriguing outsider. However, they lack the squad depth of the teams above them, and we suspect they’ll ultimately fall short in the final weeks. A top-six finish would still represent a sensational achievement.

The Long Shots

Bournemouth — 8/1 (bet365)

Andoni Iraola’s side have been outstanding this season and sit eighth, but they’re 10 points off fourth and would need a remarkable sequence of results to bridge the gap. Their squad simply isn’t deep enough. Entertaining and admirable, but the top four looks a step too far.

Tottenham & Brighton — 14/1 (bet365)

Both are too far adrift and too inconsistent. Spurs’ defensive issues rule them out, while Brighton’s transition under their latest manager has been bumpy. Neither represents value at 14/1.

Our Top 4 Prediction

1. Liverpool | 2. Arsenal | 3. Manchester City | 4. Newcastle

We think Newcastle will ultimately pip Chelsea to fourth. The Magpies’ form trajectory, their game in hand, and Isak’s brilliance give them the edge in what should be a thrilling run-in. Chelsea’s relative inexperience in these high-pressure races could tell, while City and Arsenal have too much quality to be seriously threatened from below.

Best Bets Summary

• Newcastle to finish in the top 4 — 4/5 (bet365) — Our top pick. Strong form, favourable run-in, Isak in sensational form.
• Aston Villa to finish in the top 4 — 5/2 (bet365) — Each-way value. Quality squad but fixture congestion is a concern.
• Chelsea to finish outside the top 4 — 9/4 (Betfair) — A contrarian pick. Young squad may wobble under late-season pressure.

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18+ | Odds correct at time of publication. Gambling involves risk. Please gamble responsibly. Visit BeGambleAware.org for support.